Barnsley Central By Election - Survation Survey For The Daily Mail
Correctly Predicted UKIP Strength and Lib Dem Vote Collapse.

*The Mail On Sunday's original story commissioning Survation
"Back home, but now Clegg faces another drubbing in new by-election" can be viewed here;

Survation interviewed 507 registered voters in Barnsley Central between February 24 and 25.

Here are the results for the 5 main parties* last night as they compare to the Survation survey for the Mail On Sunday*


Survation Published

Weighted, before undecided      Actual
   Vote Intention Figures  allocated to 2010 party vote       result
Dan Jarvis (Labour) 63% 66%    60.8%
Jane Collins (UKIP) 9% 11%    12.19%
James Hockney (Con) 13% 11%    8.25%
Dominic Carman (Lib Dems) 6% 2%   4.18%
Enis Dalton (BNP) 4% 5%   6.04%

*We did not break down voting support for "Others"

As you can see, actual results for the 5 national parties were very similar to those published in our survey.

Labour increased their share of the vote,  the Lib Dem vote did indeed collapse and the UKIP made a strong showing.
Who voted for UKIP Last night?

Stated UKIP Voters in the Survation survey (n-22) who expressed a past vote intention at the 2010 General Election;

How did Lib Dem 2010 Voters vote last night? (n=25)

Our full original report can be viewed at the following link which contains further information on switching to UKIP from the major parties;

For more information on Survation's Barnsley By Election Survey or to commission us for political polling or strategy
call Damian Lyons Lowe on 020 7490 4094 or 07590 821 301 out of office hours.

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