|On behalf of the Mail on Sunday, Survation interviewed 1003 GB adults about their political views Friday 10 October. Data tables are available here.
Headline voting intention (change in brackets since our last poll 14 September):
- CON 31% (NC), LAB 31% (-4), LD 7% (-1), UKIP 25% (+6), OTHERS 9% (+1)
Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation said:
Keep up to date with all of Survation’s research and analysis on our blog.
“Whilst being only one poll - and conducted on a day (Friday) where the party had very extensive television and media coverage, these figures do indicate the highest recorded for the UK Independence Party by a clear 2%.
With polling companies such as Survation and Ashcroft Polling now also showing UKIP ahead of the major parties in selected constituencies, forecasters of the 2015 General Election need to look at “UKIP’s effect” on voter behaviour up and down England & Wales.
Although the national picture shows the Conservatives and UKIP neck-and-neck (in vote share but not however seats due to our electoral system) this disguises the difficult truth that as UKIP “surge” in certain regions, their increased popularity comes more at the expense of the Conservative vote than Labour’s, making winning the key marginal CON/LAB seats required for an overall majority all the more difficult for David Cameron’s Conservatives."
Data were weighted by age, gender, region, income, education and 2010 vote.
The headline voting intention were further weighted by likelihood to vote with those undecided or refused to give a voting intention were allocated a 0.3 factor weighting of their 2010 vote.
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