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An analysis of who is voting in the 2016 Republican Primary.
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2016 Primary Election
Final Early Voting Analysis


It's 6:15pm...and oh you are receiving the final early voting report.

As many of you have seen or heard, turnout on Friday was through the roof. In recent elections, turnout increased by about 25% from the second to last day to the end of early voting. This year, there was a 35% increase. I've even heard from numerous county clerks who told me that they surpassed their previous turnout record for a primary election.

So, how many people are going to end up voting? That's been the million dollar question lately. Well, if early voting ends up being 50% of the total votes cast, turnout will likely be around 2.7 million. While it isn't likely, if early voting ends up being 60% of the total turnout, the number ends up being around 2.2 million. I'm going to go with 2.5 million as my final guess. (I'm sure I'll hear from many of you if I end up being way off.)

As I predicted yesterday, a lot of 4Rs ended up voting on the final day. Through Wednesday, only about 43% had voted early. Their turnout total ended up being around 62%.

For more information on who is showing up to vote, please take a look at the final report:
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/Early_Voting_Analysis_Report_Day_11.pdf

I will send an analysis of the entire Republican Primary election several weeks after the election.

Derek Ryan
(512) 496-5470
dryan@ryandata.com
Copyright © 2016 Ryan Data & Research, All rights reserved.


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