2016 Republican Primary Election
Early Voting Analysis
As many of you know, I am a Republican political consultant who specializes in voter data. During early voting, clerks from certain counties provide me with the lists of people who have voted early. I use this information to determine just exactly who is showing up to the polls. Naturally, some of the information is reserved only for my clients, but I also like to share some of the general information to other interested parties.
Some tidbits from the information compiled so far:
- In past Republican Primaries, through seven days of early voting, 22.5% of the total votes have typically been cast. Based on that percentage, that would mean total turnout this year would surpass 2.3 million (turnout was 1.4M in 2012 and 2008).
- 22.6% of the votes cast during early voting are from voters who have not voted in a Republican Primary between 2008 and 2014. This voting block is almost the same size as voters who have voted in all four of the last four Republican Primaries (24.3%)
- The average age of all early voters is 62.4 years old. However, the average age is 53.8 for early voters who have previous General Election history, but haven't voted in a Primary. The average age for early voters who haven't voted in a previous Primary or General Election is 44.5.
- Of the voters with no previous Primary or General Election history, 25% registered to vote since November.
The link below will allow you to view the data I have compiled plus some information from the Texas Secretary of State's office for the top 15 largest counties in the state. This information compares the 2008 through 2016 Republican Primaries.
The report can be downloaded at the following link:
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.