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ICE Canola Review: Canola down as buying interest slows

By Ashley Robinson

WINNIPEG - The ICE Futures canola contacts finished the day weaker, pulled down by weak demand for the crop.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean, oil and meal contracts were all down too. New customs data released from China this morning showed December soybean imports dropped 40.1 per cent from last year, which is up from November soybean imports which were at zero, due to the United States/China trade war.

There is concern about waning end user demand for canola coupled with weak farmer deliveries. With farm shows in Saskatoon and Brandon over the next few weeks, deliveries will continue to be down, according to a Winnipeg-based trader.

Rain fell across southern Brazil over the weekend. The forecast is calling for more rain there this week, while the central and northern part of the country is expected to remain dry. There have been concerns about dryness in Brazil affecting the soybean crop there.

About 9,671 canola contracts traded, which compares with Friday when 11,229 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,520 of the contracts traded.

 
Settlement Prices, Jan. 9, 2018
  C$/Tonne
ICE Canola Jan 478.60s -3.60
ICE Canola Mar 479.70s -3.60
ICE Canola May 488.10s -4.00
ICE Canola Jul 496.00s -3.80
  U.S. cents/bushel
MGEX Spring Wheat Mar 566-0 -4-0
KC Hard Red Wheat Mar 499-0s -5-4
Chicago Soft Wheat Mar 514-2s -5-2
CBOT Corn Mar 378-4s +0-2
CBOT Oats Mar 300-0s +5-2
CBOT Soybeans Mar 903-4s -6-6
CBOT Soybeans May 917-2s -6-4
CBOT Soybean Oil* Mar 28.40s -0.01
CBOT Soybean Meal* Mar 311.8s -2.8
*soyoil in cents/lb, soymeal in US$/cwt

U.S. Grains/Oilseed Review: Soy down with China news

By Ashley Robinson

WINNIPEG - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) SOYBEAN, oil and meal contracts were all down at market close. New customs data released from China this morning showed December soybean imports dropped 40.1 per cent from last year, which is up from November soybean imports which were at zero, due to the United States/China trade war.

U.S. weekly soybean export inspections released today came it at 1.085 million tonnes, which was above estimates.

China’s Agriculture Ministry has confirmed another case of African Swine Fever in the Gansu province.

 

CBOT CORN prices finished the day in the green.

Weekly corn exports also came in above expectations at 1.014 million tonnes.

A private analyst is estimating that the South African corn crop will not reach the 12.2 million tonne forecast, due to delayed planting and possible frost.

 

WHEAT futures in the U.S. also finished the day weaker.

U.S. wheat inspections were also above expectations at 546,000 tonnes.

Russian wheat exports for the first half of the 2018/19 marketing year were up by 13.5 per cent from last year at 24.3 million tonnes.

Winter wheat planted area in the European Union’s four largest wheat producing countries is up despite the dry conditions during planting. France wheat area is estimated to have increased by 3.5 per cent, Germany by 4.6 per cent, Britain by four per cent and Poland by around five per cent.

Prairie wheat bids dragged down by rallying loonie

By Ashley Robinson

WINNIPEG – Wheat bids in Western Canada were mostly weaker for the week ended Jan. 11, as a stronger Canadian dollar weighed on prices.

Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 per cent CWRS) wheat prices were down, falling by C$3 to C$4 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$246 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan, to as high as C$267 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $36 to $57 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the United States dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7542) CWRS bids ranged from US$186 to US$201 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$1 to US$26 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$10 to C$31 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were slightly weaker, falling by around C$1 per tonne depending on the location. Prices ranged from C$222 to C$244 per tonne in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Average durum prices were slightly stronger, with bids ranging anywhere from C$220 in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$236 in western Manitoba, depending on the location.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.7000 per bushel on Jan. 11, down by a quarter of a U.S. cent from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.0450 per bushel on Jan. 11, down by 1.50 U.S. cents compared to the previous week.

The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.1950 per bushel on Jan. 11, up by 2.5 U.S. cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 75.42 U.S cents on Jan. 11, up by 0.85 of a U.S. cent on the week.

PM radio show for Jan. 14

By MarketsFarm Team