Overnight Trade
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Overnight Trade

By Bruce Burnett
Minneapolis Canola
US $ per bushel C$ per tonne
Dec 9.55 0.0% Nov 903.20 0.5%
Mar 9.66 -0.1% Jan 898.80 0.4%
Kansas City Soybeans
US$ per bushel
Dec 9.51 -0.2% Nov 14.60 -0.2%
Mar 9.48 -0.3% Jan 14.67 -0.1%
Chicago Dollar
US $ per bushel U.S. cents per C$
Dec 8.44 -0.4% Dec 74.17 -0.1%
Mar 8.63 -0.5% Mar 74.28 -0.1%
Corn Crude Oil
US $ per bushel WTI US$ per barrel
Dec 6.79 -0.4% Dec 92.44 -0.2%
Mar 6.85 -0.3% Jan 91.27 -0.2%

Mike is on his last day of holidays, so here is the Daybreak in place of the AM report. 

Markets are expected to get off to an optimistic start this week in front of new CPI estimates from the U.S. government later this week. U.S. traders are focussed on the U.S. elections, which are expected to result in a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The Canadian dollar is trading lower this morning at 74.14 U.S. cents (1.348 C$ per US$). Crude oil is trading lower this morning with December futures at US$92.44 per barrel.

The weaker loonie is supporting the canola market with morning with nearby January futures at C$903.20 per tonne. Soybean oil and palm oil are mixed this morning, while European rapeseed is down by more than 1.0 per cent. Soybean futures are down two to three cents per bushel in early morning trade. The oilseed market is mixed due to the lower crude oil prices this morning.

Wheat markets are trading mostly lower this morning with nearby Minneapolis futures trading up one cent to down two cents. Kansas City wheat is down two to three cents per bushel, while Chicago futures are down three to four cents per bushel. Corn futures are down two to three cents per bushel, which is also pushing wheat lower this morning.

Prairie Weather

By Bruce Burnett

The next system to bring snow to the Prairies is currently moving through southern Alberta this morning, but the flurries are expected to extend into western Saskatchewan by this afternoon. The path of the storm should be similar to the one on the weekend with precipitation falling from southern Alberta to northeastern Saskatchewan/northwestern Saskatchewan. The heaviest snow from this system will fall along the northeastern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border.

Temperatures are going to remain cooler than normal through the week. Highs today will be mostly in the -5C to -10C range across the Prairies with slightly warmer temperatures expected in southern Manitoba (0C to 5C). The cool temperatures remain entrenched across Western Canada this week with highs tomorrow ranging between -5C to -10C. Even cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday through Friday, where highs will be mostly in the -12C to -17C range. Temperatures will be slightly warmer in Manitoba this week as the cold front stalls out in western areas of the Province.

To state the obvious winter is here to stay! The long term forecast is calling for cooler than normal temperatures to dominate the weather picture across most of North America in the coming two weeks. The storm track is set up for a number of systems to move across the Prairies during the next two weeks and most of that moisture will fall in the form of snow. As we said - winter is here to stay!

Soggy Australia

By Bruce Burnett

The playbook is familiar to Western Canadian farmers, especially in the northern and eastern growing areas. Rice tires, tracks and the 4WD tractor parked with a long tow strap parked on the edge of the field.  The picture below shows that the eastern Australian canola harvesting experience is very similar to those wet harvest years in Western Canada.  At least it is spring in Australia and the warmer weather makes the muck seem at least a bit more tolerable than dragging the strap through the cold mud. The problems for Australia are very serious for wheat, barley, canola and pulse crop quality and quantity this year.

The rains last week were spread across eastern Australia with amounts ranging between 15 and 100 mm. There was even some rainfall in southern Western Australia, but these rains likely only delayed the harvest for a couple of days in the Esperance region.  The concern is still with the crops in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. The wet conditions have caused harvest delays but also has caused significant downgrading of crop quality for wheat, barely and even canola. Canola sprouting will be an issue in Australian canola this year as the wet conditions combined with warming temperatures result in ideal conditions for in pod sprouting.

The wheat crop is most impacted by the rains this harvest season. Australia grows mostly soft white wheat, which has similar sprouting resistance to Western Canadian durum. This means that most of the crop in eastern Australia will have issues with falling numbers. Australian Prime Hard (APH) wheat production will be severely impacted by the wet conditions. Most of the APH production is grown in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Production of APH is usually 3.5 to 5.0 million tonnes. This is a premium high protein wheat that is used in Asian markets, especially Japan. MarketsFarm estimates that the APH production this year will be less than 2.0 million tonnes, which means that buyers will have to seek alternate suppliers. The primary alternatives are U.S. DNS and Canadian CWRS  for the lost Australian production.

Overall production estimates for Australia have been reduced by MarketsFarm to 32 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 34 million tonnes. The wet conditions are expected to cause increased harvest losses in eastern Australia. There are estimates that up to 50 per cent of the wheat crop in eastern Australia will grade feed, but we find that estimate to be a bit pessimistic. The eastern crop is expected to be 18 million tonnes and it is likely to experience downgrading on about 5.5 to 6.0 million tonnes (33 per cent). This is significant as only a portion of the feed wheat will be exported. Most of the feedlots in Australia are in eastern Australia, so some of the feed wheat production will be soaked up by the livestock operations. At the end of the day, these quality issues will result in increased demand for Canadian wheat. Most of the Canadian crop is high quality and is price competitive. This will result in some additional APH replacement business for CRWS this marketing year. The strong Canadian exports of wheat are likely to get even stronger in the coming months.

Question Of The Week – Percent completion of fall fieldwork

With flurries accumulating on the Prairies this weekend, it looks as if fall fieldwork is coming to a halt. How much of your fall fieldwork did you get done?

Poll

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