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6 February 2025
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OP-ED
The Christian Democrats’ Dangerous Gamble with the Far Right in Germany
By Karl Kopp and Wiebke Judith
By aligning itself with the far right, so-called Alternative for Germany (AfD), to push through brazenly unlawful asylum and migration policies, Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) under Friedrich Merz are not merely undermining legal norms, they are actively eroding the very foundations of democracy. The so-called “firewall against the right” has begun to crumble in Germany, and the implications could be dire. However, there are also signs of hope: hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets in protest, sending a clear message: “Uprising of the Just – We are the firewall”.
An election campaign already focused on asylum and migration catches fire
Following the collapse of the coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals in November 2024 and the decision to hold early elections on 23 February 2025, parties were forced to accelerate their election campaigns. Initially, the conservative CDU announced that it would focus on the economy in its campaign. However, this facade quickly fell apart. From the beginning of the year, the party has relentlessly pushed problematic proposals that have inflamed the migration debate. With the 2025 elections approaching, CDU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has fully embraced a hardline anti-asylum stance, displaying blatant disregard for European and international law.
This existing trend was further exacerbated by a horrific attack on a kindergarten group in the Bavarian town of Aschaffenburg two weeks ago. A two-year-old child and a courageous bystander lost their lives. The suspect, a man from Afghanistan who had previously sought asylum in Germany, had a documented history of severe psychological issues and was known to the authorities.
The tragic events in Aschaffenburg should have prompted reflection, grief, and a thorough investigation into how such horrors can be prevented. Instead, Merz has exploited the tragedy for political gain, leveraging the emotionally charged atmosphere to push for extreme policies that have long been on the CDU’s wish list.
The “Firewall against Far-Right Extremists” cracks in parliament
Even more concerning, Merz broke his own promise not to introduce parliamentary proposals that would only pass with AfD votes. And that is precisely what has now happened.
On 29 January, the CDU, with the support of AfD votes, secured a parliamentary majority for its resolution proposal of a five-point-plan. This marks a watershed moment: for the first time, a democratic party in Germany has openly collaborated with the far right to pass a proposal in parliament. Indeed, this is the first proposal ever passed in the Bundestag with the votes of the AfD.
The question of who won this political stunt became painfully obvious once the vote was announced: while AfD members celebrated and took selfies, CDU parliamentarians appeared visibly shocked by their own actions. Public reactions were equally damning: former Chancellor Angela Merkel openly criticised her successor, Merz; a Holocaust survivor returned his Federal Cross of Merit and a prominent Jewish public intellectual resigned from the CDU.
On 31 January, a more consequential legal proposal narrowly failed. The CDU’s proposed ‘Influx Control Act’ was defeated due to dissenting votes within its own ranks and unexpected opposition from several Liberal (FDP) lawmakers. If the vote would have come out differently, it would have set on its way a law that would have totally abolished family reunification for people with subsidiary protection. While this close call represented a setback for Merz, it did little to undo the damage already done.
The CDU’s Calculated Strategy of Breaking the Law
At the heart of Merz’s campaign rhetoric was a promise to override existing legal frameworks on his first day as chancellor, clearly taking inspiration from Donald Trump. Merz pledged in his five point plan to permanently close Germany’s border, to pushback people seeking asylum at these borders, to detain everyone whose application has been rejected and to deport people to countries such as Syria and Afghanistan. These measures clearly violate European and international law as well as the German Constitution. But this does not seem to bother the CDU. With regard to pushbacks at German borders and disregarding the Dublin Regulation, they claim that Germany is in a state of emergency that allows triggering of Article 72 of the EU Treaty. But this is far from the reality. Compared to 2023, the number of people seeking asylum in Germany has decreased by 30% in 2024. While the vote on the five point plan last week was mainly symbolic as it was a resolution and not a law, we should take very seriously what Friedrich Merz says for after the elections.
The dangerous calculation: The CDU/CSU is dismantling Schengen freedom of movement, pushing aside the German Basic Law, international law and EU law, all to trigger a domino effect, forcing all other member states to adopt the same illegal measures, extending all the way to the EU’s external borders.
This is not merely about restricting migration. It is about reshaping Germany’s role in Europe, moving from being a leader in co-operation and human rights to being an instigator of nationalist policies that weaken the EU’s foundations. While a worrying number of other EU member states are already on such a trajectory, such a shift in Germany could significantly amplify this trend in Europe.
The Endgame: Normalising far-right alliances
Beyond the immediate impact on people seeking asylum, the CDU’s strategy represents a far more insidious shift: it is paving the way for the normalisation of co-operation with the AfD. By relying on AfD votes to pass its policies, the CDU has set a precedent that could have far-reaching consequences. If the firewall against the far right has crumbled now, what will prevent further collaborations in the future? At the local and federal levels, particularly in East Germany, this firewall has already been precarious at best.
The recent votes in the Bundestag were more than mere procedural formalities. They served as a litmus test for Germany’s democracy. While the failure of the Influx Control Act offered a momentary sigh of relief, the broader picture remains alarming. The CDU has officially broken the taboo of working with the far right. The public response has been loud and clear. However, the party may now be waiting to see how its move is evaluated at the ballot box.
History has shown that once democratic institutions begin legitimising extremists, the erosion of democracy accelerates rapidly. The CDU is playing with fire. But right now, it is not too late to change direction.
Karl Kopp is Director and Wiebke Judith is Legal Policy Spokesperson at ECRE member organisation PRO ASYL.
  
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NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
BELGIUM
- The new federal government led by the Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance has promised major reforms to the asylum system.
- 39,615 people applied for international protection in 2024, the highest number since 2015.
- 3,000 single men continue to be denied reception amid a 30% decrease in local reception initiatives.
- Flemish Refugee Action’s Legal Helpdesk initiative has passed the milestone of 10,000 cases since its opening in April 2022.
- The Wallonian regional government has announced that it will start to reduce the accommodation it provides for Ukrainian refugees in 2025.
After nearly eight months of negotiations, a new federal government led by the Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) party was formed on 31 January. The five party coalition’s government agreement includes proposals for a significant reform of the asylum system. Incoming Minister of Asylum, Migration and Social Integration Anneleen Van Bossuyt (N-VA) told the Belga press agency that she wanted to move towards “more controlled migration”. In order to achieve this objective, the government has proposed what Prime Minister Bart de Wever (N-VA) has described as Belgium’s “strictest migration policy yet”. At the EU level, it foresees a stricter Pact on Migration and Asylum while nationally it aims to ensure that Belgium’s asylum policy “does not appear more generous than that in neighbouring countries”. It includes measures such as modernising and stepping up the deterrence campaigns targeting asylum seekers and accessing their telephones for identification and verification. Regarding reception, it foresees that people seeking asylum will only be housed in collective centres, putting an end to emergency accommodation and municipal local initiatives. In addition, the government plans to prioritise subsidiary protection over refugee status, temporarily halt resettlement, optimise the execution of return decisions and limit family reunifications. Commenting on the coalition agreement, ECRE member organisation Flemish Refugee Action (Vluchtelingenwerk Vlaanderen), described the government’s plans as “divisive” and “short-sighted” and that they would scapegoat refugees.
Asylum applications in Belgium reached their highest levels in a decade in 2024. According to data published by the Office of the Commissioner General for Refugees and Stateless Persons (CGRS) on 16 January, 39,615 people sought international protection in Belgium in 2024. This represents an increase of nearly 12% compared to 2023 and the highest figure since 2015. Outgoing Secretary of State for Asylum and Migration Nicole de Moor, highlighted the issue of secondary migration as a major contributor to the increased number of asylum applications. Commenting on the fact that half of all asylum applicants in 2024 had been registered elsewhere in Europe, de Moor said that it was unfair for people who had been recognised elsewhere to apply for asylum in Belgium. “We have to make it very clear to people that after a decision in one country, it makes no sense to try again in Belgium,” she said. In this context, in November 2024, de Moor announced a decision aimed at limiting access to reception facilities for people who had already received international protection in another EU member state. However, on 27 December 2024, the Council of State ruled that the measure was unlawful and ordered an immediate halt to its implementation. Commenting on the ruling, Thomas Willekens from Flemish Refugee Action said: “According to the court, the measure places these people in a situation of great hardship, as they are also not offered reception outside the Fedasil network”. He added that the decision had been drafted “carelessly” and that it was “perfectly legal to apply for asylum in Belgium even if a person already received protection status in another European country”.
Belgium’s reception system continues to face significant challenges. Although the Federal Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (Fedasil) reported a record capacity of 36,077 places in 2024, it also warned that the reception network remained “saturated” with an occupancy rate of around 94%. By the end of 2024, 3,000 single men were on a three- to four-month waiting list for a reception place and many had been forced into rough sleeping. The situation has been further exacerbated by a significant decrease in local reception initiatives. As of 1 January, these initiatives only provided 4,115 places, a 30% decrease compared to 2021. Matti Vandemaele MP from the Flemish green (Groen) party, expressed disappointment at this development on the grounds that small-scale reception was “more humane, cheaper, and very much needed to cope with the reception crisis”.
In January, Flemish Refugee Action’s Legal Helpdesk initiative passed the milestone of 10,000 cases. The service, which aims to assist asylum applicants in accessing free and official legal services, has been operating since April 2022 with the assistance of volunteers lawyers and legal students. Thomas Willekens from Flemish Refugee Action had mixed feelings about the achievement. “10,000 is a huge number and it says something about how many people we have been able to reach. But it is also a sad number because it means that 10,000 people without accommodation needed a lawyer,” he said, adding: “The reception crisis is now into its fourth year, which is four years too long”.
The Wallonian regional government has announced that it will start to reduce the accommodation it provides for Ukrainian refugees in 2025. On 28 January, the government said that, as of 1 April, it would reduce its total refugee housing capacity by 50% to 1,325 places and that this would be decreased to 37% by 1 July and to 25% by 1 October. According to Wallonian Minister for Minister of Energy, Air, Climate, Planning, Housing and Airports Cécile Neven, this approach is intended to “maintain a capacity in the long term to continue to offer accommodation to the most vulnerable people and to newly arrived beneficiaries of temporary protection”.
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NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
GERMANY
- The German parliament has narrowly rejected a migration law that was proposed by the conservative opposition and supported by the far-right.
- Thousands of people have taken to the streets to protest against mainstream political parties’ co-operation with the far-right following a historic vote in parliament.
- New data on extremist violence has revealed worrying developments in 2024.
The German parliament has narrowly rejected a migration law that was proposed by the conservative opposition and supported by the far-right. The proposal, which sought to curb migration numbers and the right to family unity, was defeated by 350 votes to 338 on 31 January, two days after a non-binding motion on restricting migration was approved. The vote on 29 January was historic as it was the first time that a proposal had been passed in parliament as a result of support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and marked a historic breach of the “firewall” on co-operating with the far right. Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party leader Friedrich Merz has faced criticism for not shunning the AfD’s support but he has defended his actions as “necessary” and denied actively courting the far-right party. “A right decision doesn’t become wrong just because the wrong people agree to it,” he said. Commenting on the vote on 31 January, the head of ECRE member organisation Diakonie Deutschland, Rüdiger Schuch, said: “This is a victory of reason and a clear signal against a dam bursting. It is not acceptable to take into account the support of parties that reject our basic democratic order and a migration policy based on the rule of law,” while ECRE member organisation Der Paritätische Gesamtverband said: “The proposed changes are all either incompatible with the German Constitution or European legal rulings, unfeasible, and above all, ineffective”.
Following the votes, thousands of people took to streets to protest against mainstream political parties’ co-operation with the far-right. On 2 February, an estimated 160,000 people protested outside parliament and later in front of the CDU’s headquarters. The next day, 145 organisations, including ECRE member organisations Arbeiterwohlfahrt (AWO), Der Paritätische Gesamtverband, Diakonie Deutschland, PRO ASYL and Terre des hommes, issued an appeal to the CDU to “stand up for the human rights firewall”, referring to the longstanding agreement that mainstream parties would not co-operate with the far right. “Last week, the firewall against the right was torn down solely for electoral motives. We are still appalled and stunned that one of the most important agreements after the end of the Nazi regime was terminated for something as short-sighted as the hope of personal political advantage,” said the head of AWO, Michael Groß. His comments were echoed by Der Paritätische Gesamtverband. “The CDU introduced these motions and the draft law in the Bundestag, fully aware that they could only be passed with the votes of a party that is, in part, right-wing extremist. This is inexcusable,” it said. In addition, the head of PRO ASYL, Halima Gutale delivered a clear message to the CDU and to the wider public. “All CDU members are obliged to turn back. Defend the human dignity of all people! The encouraging protests throughout the country show that we all have to be the firewall – against right-wing extremists and nationalists,” she said.
New data on extremist violence has revealed worrying developments in 2024. According to provisional figures published by the Ministry of the Interior in response to an information request from the Left group (Die Linke) in parliament, there were 218 “politically-motivated attacks” against asylum accommodation facilities in 2024. This figure includes incidents in which the accommodation was either the target of the attack or the place where an attack or crime against a person seeking asylum took place. The ministry’s response to the information request also showed that the number of politically-motivated attacks against refugees and people seeking asylum away from official accommodation centres had decreased by 21% in 2024 but still remained at 1,905. In addition, there was an overall increase in crimes of an “extreme right-wing nature” from 28,945 in 2023 to 33,963 in 2024.
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NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
UK
- There was a 25% increase in the number of people who crossed the Channel in small boats in 2024, and a record number of deaths.
- The government has unveiled a draft law aimed at strengthening border security and repealing various elements of its predecessor’s migration and asylum policies.
- The government has unveiled a multi-million package of aid for Tunisia to address the ‘root causes of irregular migration’ from the country.
There was a 25% increase in the number of people who crossed the Channel in small boats in 2024. According to data published by the Home Office (Ministry of the Interior) in early January, 36,816 people made the crossing in 2024 compared to 29,437 in the previous year. Although the number of crossings did not exceed the all-time record (45,774 in 2022), 2024 was the worst year in terms of the number of deaths and disappearances of people on the move. According to the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Missing Migrants Project, at least 82 people, including 14 children, died trying to cross the Channel in 2024. ECRE member organisation the Refugee Council published a report on the number of deaths in the Channel, in which it urged the UK government to publish quarterly data jointly with the French government, improve search and rescue operations along the French coast and expand safe and legal routes to the UK. “The record number of deaths in the Channel in 2024 should serve as a stark reminder that the current approach is not working,” said the organisation’s CEO, Enver Solomon, adding: “The total number of deaths may well be even higher because the lack of monitoring by the French and UK authorities means that there isn’t an accurate picture”. “The Government needs to take a different approach if it is to ensure everything possible is done so that 2025 does not see a repeat of last year’s devastating loss,” he concluded.
The government has unveiled a draft law aimed at strengthening border security and repealing various elements of its predecessor’s migration and asylum policies. The ‘Border Security, Asylum and Migration Bill’, which was introduced to parliament on 30 January, will, inter alia, allow border officials to seize people’s phones to search for intelligence about smugglers and create new offences relating to endangering people’s lives at sea and preparing acts of smuggling. It will also repeal the law that enabled the now abandoned Rwanda scheme (Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Act 2024) and certain provisions of the 2023 Illegal Migration Act. The UK government has described the measures included in the draft law as being “inspired by the approach taken to counter terrorism, enabling earlier intervention against those facilitating organised crime”. Introducing the bill, Home Secretary (Minister of the Interior) Yvette Cooper said: “These new counter terror-style powers, including making it easier to seize mobile phones at the border, along with statutory powers for our new Border Security Command to focus activity across law enforcement agencies and border force will turbocharge efforts to smash the gangs”.
The introduction of the draft law has received mixed responses from NGOs. Enver Solomon welcomed the government’s “commitment to restoring order in the asylum system”. “By scrapping the costly and fantastical Rwanda plan, repealing much of the previous government’s draconian legislation and overturning the pause on processing asylum applications, the Government has averted a meltdown, cutting delays and preventing higher hotel costs,” he said. However, he also warned of the risks of a “gross miscarriage of justice” by potentially criminalising people seeking asylum in the UK. “The Government is also right to seek to tackle the vicious smuggling gangs but we are very concerned that by creating new offences, many refugees themselves could also be prosecuted, which has already been happening in some cases,” he said. Solomon also expressed disappointment that the draft law did not go far enough in reforming the UK’s asylum system. “A properly reformed system would have safe and legal routes for refugees, accurate first-time decisions about who can stay and who must leave, and meaningful support to help refugees integrate into their communities and contribute to Britain,” he added. Solomon’s criticism was echoed by the head of the NGO Asylum Aid, Alison Pickup. “Further criminalisation and measures blocking people from protection will do nothing to address the causes of forced displacement and unauthorised movement through Europe to the UK,” she said.
The government has unveiled a multi-million package of aid for Tunisia to address the ‘root causes of irregular migration’ from the country. During a visit to Tunisia on 31 January, Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs (Minister of Foreign Affairs) David Lammy announced that the UK would provide £ 5 million “to boost UK funded programmes in the region to upskill migrants in-country, making it less likely that they will make dangerous small boat journeys to Europe, including the UK, and undermine the country’s border security”. He also announced that the UK would provide up to £ 1 million to the IOM’s Assisted Voluntary Returns and Reintegration programme to “support transiting migrants who have no legal right to be in Tunisia and to return and reintegrate them to their home country”. Exactly one week after the Guardian newspaper reported that the European Commission was planning to overhaul its funding to Tunisia in response to revelations of abuses committed by EU-funded security forces, Lammy praised the work of the Tunisian authorities’ efforts to prevent people from attempting to reach Europe. “The Tunisian National Maritime Guard are using UK supplied drone and night vision to dissuade perilous journeys by sea, smash the gangs, and save lives,” he X posted. Neither the government’s press release nor Lammy’s X post mentioned the repeatedly raised concerns about human rights abuses committed by Tunisian authorities against people on the move or the ongoing repression of civil society in the country.
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NEWS FROM THE ECRE OFFICE
ECRE has published a comments paper on the Regulation introducing the screening of third-country nationals at the external borders, commonly known as the Screening Regulation. The Screening Regulation was adopted in June 2024 as one of the central pillars of the reformed Common European Asylum System (CEAS).
This comments paper is the latest in the series of ECRE analyses of the legislation that collectively forms the Pact on Migration and Asylum. It follows comments papers on the Regulation on Asylum and Migration Management, the Regulation on Addressing Situations of Crisis and Force Majeure in the Field of Migration and Asylum, the Directive Laying Down Standards for the Reception of Applicants for International Protection and the Regulation establishing a Common Procedure for International Protection in the EU. It should be read together with the ECRE comments paper on the European Commission proposal for a Screening Regulation.
Unlike other legal instruments in the Pact, the Screening Regulation does not modify existing rules. Instead, it codifies practices often previously undertaken informally or only formalised in law or policy at the national level which form part of external border management. While it is presented as a new legal instrument, its provisions largely reflect existing processes at EU borders. The screening process is designed to either “seamlessly complement” external border checks or to compensate for their absence during border crossings. In addition, the Screening Regulation establishes rules to support border authorities in managing large-scale arrivals and to prevent absconding and secondary movements of international protection applicants.
ECRE has consistently voiced concerns about the Regulation’s implications for fundamental rights and the protection of vulnerable individuals. In this context, it has emphasised the potential for systemic human rights violations and provided detailed recommendations to address these issues and to improve the legislative framework.
The comments paper is available here.
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RECENT REPORTS
ECRE
February
January
ECRE Member Organisations
February
January
Others
February
January
- Asylum Aid et al., Stateless People in the UK: At Risk of Legal Limbo, In Need of Protection
- Border Violence Monitoring Network, Balkan Regional Report – November 2024
- European Parliament, Implementation of the EU pact on migration and asylum
- European Parliament, The gender dimension of asylum claims
- European Union Asylum Agency, Guidelines on Alternatives to Detention
- I Have Rights, Controlled and Confined: Unveilling the Impact of Technology in the Samos Closed Controlled Access Centre
- Investigative Reporting Project Italy, The silence of Italy’s Guardia di Finanza on drones deployed in the Mediterranean
- Migration Policy Institute, No One-Size-Fits-All: Outreach and counselling for irregular migrants
- Persecution Prevention Project, Pathways to Protection
- Researchers X, State trafficking: Expulsion and sale of migrants from Tunisia to Libya
- Runnymede, A hostile environment: Language, race, politics and the media
- Solomon, Invisible Walls: How AI Tech at Europe’s Borders Threatens People Seeking Refuge
- Sussex Centre for Migration Research, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies – Volume 51, Issue 1
- Turkey Tribunal, Turkey’s Unending Crackdown: The Persecution of the Gülen Movement
- United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), UNHCR’s 2025 Recommendations for the Polish and Danish Presidencies of the Council of the European Union (EU)
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UPCOMING EVENTS
ECRE Member Organisations
Others
- 8 February, Sheffield, Thinking with our communities – detention and beyond, Right to Remain
- 3-7 March, London, Research Methods in the Refugee and Forced Migration Field, Refugee Law Initiative
- 8 March, London, Womens Run Series, Women for Refugee Women
- 10-11 March, Florence, Building effective engagement between research, policy and practice: a strategic approach to impactful migration research in the world of policy, European University Institute
- 17-19 March, Krems an der Donau, 2025 IMISCOE Spring Conference, University for Continuing Education Krems
- 17-21 March, Krems an der Donau, MIrreM Spring School 2025, University for Continuing Education Krems
- 18-19 March, Brussels, Anti-Racism and Diversity Week, European Network Against Racism
- 20-23 March, Budapest, Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), Apatride Network
- 12-17 May, Online, Migration Communication Strategies: Effective Approaches to Depolarise the Debate, European University Institute
- 30 June – 1 July, Inaugural Conference: Migration in times of Polarization, Vienna Centre for Migration and Law
- 6-8 October, Florence, Effective Migration Governance: Policy Impacts and Trade-Offs, European University Institute
- Online, Training Course: Temporary Protection in the European Union, Council of Europe
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OPEN JOB VACANCIES
ECRE Member Organisations
Others
- International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA Europe), Senior Partnerships Officer, Brussels, 13 February
- Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Refugee Protection Officer, 8 February
- Lindsays, Immigration Caseworker, Glasgow
- Mobile Info Team, Research Officer, Thessaloniki,
- Quaker Council for European Affairs, Director, Brussels, 5 March
- Refugee and Migrant Centre, Caseworker level 1, 2, and 3, Birmingham, 28 February
- Women for Refugee Women, Co-Chair of Board of Trustees, London, 7 February
- Women for Refugee Women, Policy and Research Manager, London, 24 February
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ONGOING CAMPAIGNS
ECRE Member Organisations
Others
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CALLS FOR PAPERS, PROJECT PROPOSALS, UNIVERSITY COURSES etc.
Calls for Applications
Call for Artists from Refugee Backgrounds
Call for Input
Calls for Papers
Call for Research Projects and ‘Research Shorts’
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