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Monday June 10
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Supported by our friends at Vidmob 
 
NewTV
 
The ongoing problems that Netflix face has caused a certain amount of schadenfreude around the TV business. Peter Kafka makes the point that this may not be a sensible approach
 
So the nightmare scenario for Hollywood — or at least the unpleasant dream version — is that Netflix’s problems are everyone’s problems. And that if Netflix is already losing customers to newcomers, that means the market isn’t nearly as big as everyone has been hoping.
 
“You need to understand that the economics of these things only kick in at around 400 million subscribers,” a mogul told me — noting that Netflix, which still has the biggest audience in the world, is barely breaking even at 220 million subscribers. What happens if investors decide they no longer want to fund global entertainment giants if those giants aren’t going to make money?
 
I think the industry is set for reset and the shifts made by Netflix will impact everyone else. To use the old cliche there was a gap in the market for Netflix but the market in that gap will only support one or two players. The subscription model just doesn't scale - especially when we have a global cost of living crisis
 
The challenge is how quickly the abundant advertising revenue can switch from linear to streaming, when many Agencies are wedded to a legacy model, even though incremental reach is crucial.
 
Some see we have entered the second act and behaviours need to change -  particularly around the major cost - content. The new WMD head seems to be setting the agenda here
 
“We’re going to spend more on content — but you’re not going to see us come in and go, ‘All right, we’re going to spend $5 billion more,’” said Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav during an investor call in February, after Netflix had begun its slide but before it nose-dived. “We’re going to be measured, we’re going to be smart and we’re going to be careful.”
 
But the user experience around AVOD needs attention - as this WSJ piece warns. People are used to the ad breaks on trad TV and the newTV experience must be at least as good and hopefully better. 
 
For all their issues most in the industry recognise the impact of Netflix and a long feature on Ted Sarandos is great insight into both him and the business;
 
“He’s had more singular influence on movies and television shows than anyone ever had,” Barry Diller told me. “He has denuded the power of the old movie companies that had held for almost 100 years. They are now irrelevant to setting the play and rules of the day. If there is still a Hollywood, he is it.”
 
And their size remains a competitive advantage - the machine is excellent at finding new content in unexpected places and the size of their audience helps them see patterns better than most - as in hits like Squid Game;
 
“This is where the algorithm is your friend,” he said. “The algorithm is an advocate for the audience trying to find that thing you never heard of that you’re going to love. And it kept recognizing very quickly that this thing was happening in Korea and ‘Oh, my God, it’s happening in Japan.’ ‘Oh, it’s happening in France.’”
 
In the interview Sarnadon acknowledges the challenges they face - mentioning the scale of password sharing; “About a third of American households are borrowing the password to someone else’s account,” That sounds about right to me - every time i talk on this subject I ask who shares and we get a quarter to a third raise their hand.
 
Their early attempts to solve this are struggling
 
Rest of World spoke to over a dozen Netflix consumers in Peru, many of whom say that more than two months after the policy was first announced, they have not received uniform messaging around the new charges nor do they seem to be subject to the same policies.
 
For some, the price increase has been enough to convince them to cancel their Netflix accounts outright. Others continue to share their accounts across households without any notification of the policy change or have ignored the new rule without facing enforcement. Overall, the lack of clarity around how Netflix determines a “household” and inconsistent levying of the new charges on different customers have left subscribers in the trial confused, risking action from consumer regulators. 
 
But out of this some policy will emerge that wil roll out into other territories. If the US have a third of customers sharing, the impact of a clamp down will be significant - and likely to have more impact than ad revenue will in the short term.
 
One point worth remembering is how the space is really dominated by the big tech players as this look at Free Cash Flow generation for most of the major players. 
 
Merchant 
 
Whilst the world of merchants is driven by two ket trends - the disruption of Fast Last Mile delivery and the opportunity of a rich new revenue stream to subsidise this with Merchant Media
 
Below the surface there is lots going on - a new report from CB Research on
The Future of the Supermarket looks at how technology is making grocery shopping more personalized, efficient, and sustainable. A new job opening at Morrisons for a Digital Product Manager shows what a focus this is for all the key players.
 
Instore tech is seen as a solution to many issues - with H&M trialling new tech in their US Cos stores. But a new petition imploring Tesco to reverse their push into self service checkouts, shows tech isn't always popular. What would those signing the petition make of Walmarts drone deliveries?
 
Tough times mean many companies look at adjacent businesses for growth; GoPuff are experimenting with dark kitchens to offer food delivery alongside groceries. 
 
We also see people looking to sell their business - BI has someone who sold an 8 month old business for $1m. That sort of hype has driven the rapid growth of Amazon roll ups - but it looks like the wheels are coming off and the main players are rapidly cutting costs.
 
Klarna's woes are a warning of the recession to come - New Statesman
 
Interesting Google event on retail, with Seth Godin talking. This Tuesday.          
 
Social
 
One of the issues we see with our GoodTikTok Creative is the screen getting cluttered with user names, captions, buttons and more. Now TikTok is testing a Clear Mode so users can scroll without distraction.
 
In this weeks GTTC we looked at Mini and some of their TikToks have unreadable text flashing up for a couple of seconds, which is probably Ts and Cs?
 
A new report on TikTok from Hootsuite Make It Make Sense: A TikTok Culture Guideis interesting 
 
The Trapital content by Dan Runcie is always interesting and this piece especially so; TikTok and the Debate on Music Marketing - 
 
Apple
 
The Apple event next week promises to be interesting. The big questions are around;
 
Adetch - do Apple do more to push privacy? If they clamp down on finger printingthat could shake up a market still dealing with post ATT tremors.
 
AR - are they ready to launch an AR product? What does that do to other players - like Snap? But could Snap be a partner? They have the biggest audience of AR users and hence a prime market for new hardware. They are already heavily featured on the Apple site
 
Search - is now the time Apple turns off Google insight into iPhone users by removing their position as default search engine? And how do they make up the $10bn plus that Google currently pay them? Their own search engine?
 
Web3

Netscape creator (and A16Z founder) says Web3 really is like the rise of the early internet
 
NFT 2.0: The next generation of NFTs will be streamlined and trustworthy
 
How NFTS and Tokenisation will disrupt tomorrows economies - Seed
 
Wait, there are NFTs hidden in Netflix's latest hit series? | Creative Bloq
 
SocialFi could empower content creators to break free of brand partnerships
 
Marketing in the metaverse: An opportunity for innovation and experimentation | McKinsey
 
The promise and peril of the metaverse | McKinsey
 
Game on: how tech companies are betting on the metaverse | FT Film
 
Condé Nast is building a Web3 team to be at “forefront of culture” | Vogue Business
 
Tim Sweeney: Epic will fight Apple and Google to keep the metaverse open | Financial Times
 
What Is an NFT? And 21 Other Urgent Questions About Non-Fungible Tokens | GQ
 
Scab Shop - Tattoo as NFTs?
 
Creativity

The Opportunity for Brands in Data-Driven Creative Strategy - Vidmob
 
Marketing’s next frontier for marketing performance is creative performance. Artificial Intelligence and automation can surface creative elements that drive performance. Capturing data isn’t new for marketers, but bringing useful data, learnings and insights and a common language that both creative and performance or growth marketers understand is a step change. Insights need to inform teams to help them create, learn, perform and improve, so that they can confidently drive continual improvement against business metrics. 
 
At VidMob, we’ve not only developed leading creative technology, but have developed a methodology that supports organizational processes and workflows to make use of all this data. Layering creative efficiency on creative effectiveness delivers even more value to the marketing team.For so long now, many creators had zero visibility into whether their creative decisions were making an impact from a business perspective. Intelligent creative processes make it possible for creative teams of all forms to see the impact of their ideas and have confidence in the choices they are making because it is supported by data. The creative process is changing because actionable data is now in the mix.
 
Learn more in the Forrester Report: “Intelligent Creativity Energizes Marketing Productivity”

plus+
 
Why advertising will never die - Marketing Week
 
Are you brave enough to invest in top of funnel advertising? Interesting thinking from our friends at Fospha
 
Can augmented reality take off where VR has failed? - FT
 
Crypto and sports bet on winning combination to woo fans
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