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4 hours or bust. As it turns out, round numbers are powerful motivators for marathon runners. In an analysis of 10M marathon finishes, it was revealed that finishes spiked right before typical goal thresholds like the 3- and 4-hour marks (illustrated by the shaded bars above). That said, while finishing times like 2:59 and 3:59 are fairly common, it is relatively rare for runners to cross the finish line right after hourly marks — e.g., at 3:01, 4:01, etc. In fact, a finishing time of 3:59 is 1.4 times as likely as one of 4:01.
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