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Hi there,
So after this quarter’s record-setting venture numbers, the hot takes about it being like 1999 are coming fast and furious.
For those unfamiliar, 1999 was when the infamous dot-com bust happened.
These takes are good for clicks, but they're otherwise facile and wrong.
Let’s start with what is similar between 1999 and today:
- Lots of $ piling into startups
- Price discipline is gone
- Everyone (not just VCs) wants a piece of tech
- Tech is top of mind for media
- Some “silly” companies are getting funded at lofty valuations
Yes — there are excesses in today’s venture ecosystem.
But there are lots of differences:
- A lot more enterprise tech/SaaS today vs. heavy consumer. It's not eyeball monetization and other nonsense. It's ARR, NRR, churn, etc.
- The funding today is going to building product and getting to product-market fit and not racks of servers, colocation facilities, etc.
- The money is increasingly going to perceived winners vs. speculative early-stage cos. Look at the decline in early-stage deal share in the past quarter. It's at a 5-year low.
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