2020 Primary Report - Day 3
It's Monday, all of the major counties posted their lists of early voters through the weekend, so you get an early update today. I didn't provide a report over the weekend, so today's email includes two separate reports. One that covers early voting through Friday and another report that includes people who voted through the weekend.
Someone reached out and asked what turnout looked like compared to 2016. I was only able to compare the top 15 largest counties to this same point in 2016. Interestingly enough, the number of voters in the 2020 Republican Primary is larger than it was at this point in 2016 (225,826 vs 212,142). The current turnout percent is 2.1% in these counties in the Republican Primary.
I was honestly a little surprised that the total numbers were up since there is no contested presidential race in the Republican Primary this cycle. So, for comparison, I looked at the turnout in the 2012 Democratic Primary when President Obama was basically unopposed in his bid to be the Democratic nominee for a second term. Turnout at this point in 2012 was only 1.3%. (One reason turnout is higher this year in the Republican Primary compared to the 2012 Democratic Primary is the number of contested primaries for congressional seats.)
On the Democratic side, turnout is up significantly over 2016 in the top counties. Over 100,000 more people have voted in the Democratic Primary in 2020 than voted at this point in 2016 (271,377 vs. 170,839). The current turnout percent is 2.6%.
Below are charts comparing turnout in 2020 to turnout in 2016 in these counties.
As I said, there are two reports available today:
Early Votiing Report - Day 4
Early Voting Report - Day 6
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. I can't promise that I will answer promptly, but I will try to respond when I can.
Sincerely,
Derek Ryan
(512) 496-5470
dryan@ryandata.com
P.S. If someone forwarded this email to you, and you want to skip the middleman, you can sign up here.
P.P.S. If you are a candidate or working on a campaign, and are interesting in reports for your county/district, reach out and I can provide you with a quote.
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