And the New President of Iran is….

Phil Johnson, Ph.D.
Global Next Research Group
June 15, 2009

… Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Oh, wait…that was the old president. Well, no matter, the voice of the people has been heard. Oh, wait…maybe not.

 Amid reports of violence and mass public demonstrations, the likes of which have not been seen in Iran in over ten years, and accusations of election rigging, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been declared the president of Iran by Iran’s Interior Ministry’s election commission. The supporters of Mousavi, Ahmadinejad’s closest opponent, have taken to the streets in protest to demonstrate their disapproval of what is widely believed to be a rigged election. The “official” numbers have Ahmadinejad winning the election with nearly 63 percent of the vote to Mr. Mousavi’s nearly 34 percent. (The Washington Post, June 13, 2009)

Who is Mousavi?

Despite reports that Mousavi is a more “pro-Western” reformer than his opponent, Ahmadinejad, the evidence suggests otherwise.  According to a CNN interview with Georgetown University professor, Shireen Hunter, Mousavi is deeply anti-American.  Middle East expert Alireza Jafarzadeh, has this to say about Mousavi: “Mir Hossein Mousavi is the current reincarnation of the moderate political animal in Iran.  He was a founding member of the Islamic Republic Party – think of it as the mullahs’ Third Reich.  Among honors on his resume, he lists: 144 extraterritorial assassinations during the premiership, the massacre of nearly 30,000 political prisoners on the eve of the signing of the 1988 UN Iran-Iraq cease-fire accord, and the 1983 embassy and marine barrack bombings in Beirut.”  (Jafarzadeh, 6/12/09. “Iran’s Election Charade,” Human Events.com.)

Does it matter who won?

Probably not. While the president of Iran has a certain amount of sway over domestic policy and has been the international face of the Iranian message and policy over the last four years, he is not the most powerful person in Iran. As an Islamic Republic, that position belongs to the supreme ruler, the Ayatollah Ali Khameinei. The president is largely the face and voice of the will of the Supreme Leader. So what Ahmadinejad has been saying for the last four years is a clear reflection of the beliefs and direction of the Ayatollah Khameinei. The next president, no matter who was chosen, will continue that pattern. Regardless as to the hopes of the Obama administration concerning more openness between the US and Iran with a Mousavi win, more than likely, the policies of Iran would have continued as they have been. Especially when it comes to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power.

 And if Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory holds, things will most definitely remain the same. A June 14^th report from the New York Times, clarifies Ahmadinejad’s current political stance. He has made it clear that future cooperation with foreign governments depends upon the their willingness to accept his victory. When asked about the speculation that he might take a more cooperative stance during his second term, he smirked, “It’s not true. I’m going to be more and more solid.” And according to the New York Times, he can afford to be. He has the backing of the Supreme Leader and the military and is well on his way to marginalizing all other political figures who represented a possible change to his policies. (“Leader Emerges with Stronger Hand,” 6/14/09. New York Times)

Israel’s Response

What happens in Iran is of great importance to the State of Israel. Iran has made it clear that is would like to wipe Israel off the face of the map. This rhetoric, combined with Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power (some say weapons), makes Israel understandably nervous. This, along with Israel’s recent large-scale air raid drill practices, cause some to wonder if Israel is preparing to go in and take out Iran’s nuclear reactors before nuclear weapons are achieved.

In the middle of this, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday in a speech that he could accept a two-state solution with the Palestinians. This is a surprising political departure for Netanyahu. But his concession comes with conditions that are not likely to be accepted by the Palestinian leadership. Among the conditions is a completely demilitarized Palestine, total recognition of Israel as a Jewish state (a humiliating admission for Palestinians and from a practical standpoint, allows no right of return for Palestinian refugees) and the understanding that all of Jerusalem will remain the Israeli capital. So far the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank has been critical over Netanyahu’s speech. Understandably, the Hamas leadership in Gaza has been even more aggressively critical of the speech because Netanyahu won’t negotiate anything as long as Hamas is in elected power by the Palestinians.

The Obama Response

The Obama administration says that they will pursue dialogue with Iran, regardless as to who wins the election. Washington is guarded in their views of the election outcome. With so much credit being given to Obama because of his speech in Cairo and the perceived success of the recent elections in Lebanon, there’s no way that the current Whitehouse administration is going to do anything but spin this in their favor. And if the Obama administration wants to have any opportunity to dialogue with an Ahmadinejad government, they must tread carefully and communicate their respect for Iran’s election process.  In addition, Yelena Biberman, Global Next’s Russian research associate – reporting from Kiev- suggests that both the US and Israel will lay low regarding their feelings regarding the election as well as statements about any allegations of fraud. If they chose to get involved more directly, Biberman asserts, it would kill the spirit of opposition that is growing among the Iranian youth. (A youth that according to Yelena Biberman’s research has not embraced the Islamic Republic the way that that Iranian Islamic leaders had expected.)

In the next few days, the demonstrations will die down – or will be forced to die down by Iranian authorities– and the government will go on. What happens next will be of great interest to those following global events. The continued pursuit of cooperation from Obama, combined with Iranian determination for nuclear power and Israel’s resolve to protect itself and its right to exist should keep the news outlets busy, to say the least.

If you missed my recent article on the elections in Lebanon, click here.