Tracking the World

Hezbollah and the Lebanese Elections

Phil Johnson, Ph.D.
Global Next Research Group
June 11, 2009

In late May I paid a visit to Beirut to meet with the Lebanese Ministry of Information and Press Department ahead of the June 7th elections. Among other things, I learned that most Lebanese officials expected that Hezbollah would become the majority party in the government, tipping the balance of power towards this “terrorist” or “resistance” organization (depending upon who’s describing the group). It was also very obvious that most were afraid to speak about Hezbollah revealing the incredible amount of fear and intimidation they wielded over the average citizen.

But not all are afraid. In fact, many are devoted followers of the Party of God. One individual I interviewed, Hassan, from Dahieh, a southern, Shiite suburb of Beirut and the Hezbollah stronghold, told me that Hezbollah was stronger than ever, and immeasurably stronger than they were in 2006 when they last battled Israel. Hassan, a strong supporter of Hezbollah suggested that Israel has no idea about the new training techniques being used for Hezbollah's militia and that Hezbollah was itching for war with Israel again. Indeed, Israel has been putting efforts into understanding what Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader is up to as evidenced by the fact that according to the New York Times, at least 21 Israeli spies were caught in Lebanon in recent weeks. (Worth, Robert F. “Spies’ Roots Reach Deep in Lebanon” New York Times, May 22, 2009)  Under Lebanese law, each could be facing the death penalty.

In the end, Hezbollah was not victorious in the election as the pro-Western March 14 Coalition went on to win 71 of the 148 legislative seats. The Hezbollah-aligned March 8 opposition group won 57 seats. Contrary to pre-election polling indicating a tight race between the two groups, the results were decidedly in favor of the March 14 Coalition led by Saad al-Hariri.

All of this might sounds pretty great and certainly the mainstream media heralded the March 14 Coalition’s victory with statements like, “The results represent a significant and unexpected defeat for Hezbollah and its allies, Iran and Syria.” (New York Times) “A stunning setback to the Iranian-backed militants.” (Fox News) “A humiliating defeat.” (ABC). But according to columnist Joel Hilliker of the Trumpet.com, maybe Hezbollah didn’t want what everyone thought they wanted. Here’s what Joel has to say:

“In truth, Hezbollah had no intention of taking over the government of Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said as much before the election. He promoted Maronite Christian Michel Aoun as leader of the Hezbollah political bloc. Hezbollah itself only stood 11 candidates, all of whom won. Its popularity among the Lebanese is unchanged.

 Hezbollah is perfectly satisfied with its current position in Lebanon: as the political opposition with veto power. That position will remain—just watch.

The fact is, Hezbollah has Lebanon’s strongest military force. That is its trump card. In May of 2008, when it was dissatisfied with its treatment by the government, Hezbollah—at the direction of its benefactors in Iran—declared war. In a single day, Iranian Guardsmen and Hezbollah gunmen took over the streets of West Beirut, blockaded the airport, shut down pro-government news outlets, and besieged the headquarters of Lebanese leaders Fouad Siniora and Saad Hariri. Remarkably, however, once they secured these gains, they did not complete the coup. Instead, they turned everything back over to the Lebanese Army and stepped aside—simply demanding the power of veto in the Lebanese cabinet.” (Hilliker, Joel, "Did Hezbollah Really Lose in Lebanon?” Trumpet.com, June 10, 2009.)

In fact, Reuters reported on June 11, 2009 that regardless of Hezbollah’s defeat, this Iranian-backed group has lost no support among Shiite Muslims. (Alistair Lyon, Reuters, June 11, 2009.) Hezbollah is still a force to be reckoned with as they still have a powerful army and weapons. In truth, governing Lebanon would probably be nothing more than a distraction for the group and would divert them from one of their primary goals: the elimination of the state of Israel.

Many observers have viewed this election as an early test of President Barack Obama’s efforts to forge Middle East peace, following his speech in Cairo at Cairo University. And most are crediting Obama's "distinctly-different-than-Bush-style," as a major motivating force in encouraging the thawing of Western/Arab relations.  So while the US and its allies rejoice at this pro-West win, others are keeping both eyes open realizing that Hezbollah is still influential, armed, dangerous and dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Nasrallah may have accepted the electoral defeat with “a sporting spirit,” but my guess is that Hezbollah won’t be surrendering their weapons, or their influence anytime soon.