Novembers Round Up Welcome to my monthly round up from various papers. This should help you take a step back and put into perspective what has been happening over the course of the month.
The bigger picture…Our view a few months ago was that long term interest rates looked likely to remain low this now looks more certain. We also agree with Savills prediction that property prices would fall next year.
Stock Markets continue to increase. The Dubai issue was almost brushed aside last week as many investors and managers now understand that many of these issues won’t spill into the mass market. More importantly investors are not panicking like they were at the start of the crisis. This indicates an acceptance that these things happen and a return to normality. We expect to see the markets continue to rise as cash leaves low interest savings accounts and enters the investment market in order to maintain its value and capture higher dividend income.
Finally Britain does seem to be in a worse state than many other economies so our view that a global portfolio would be more beneficial for our clients looks like being the right plan..

Darling to concede recession worse than he forecast
Alister Darling will admit in next month’s pre-Budget report that the recession has been much deeper than he forecast in March, the Financial Times has learnt. The chancellor is expected to say that the economy contracted by 4.75 per cent in 2009, shrinking at least one percentage point more than predicted in the Budget. But he will also say that the UK has at last turned a corner and is on the road to recovery, ahead of a probable general election in May. The Treasury’s forecasts assume the economy has started to grow again in the final three months of this year, Treasury insiders said on Thursday.
Source : Financial Times page 1 - 27.11.09.
OECD confirms that Britain is lagging behind the world's leading economies
Britain's economy is lagging well behind other leading industrialised countries, a leading economic think-tank confirmed yesterday. Figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) showed that while the UK remained in recession between July and September, the other leading seven economies expanded. The 30 nations under the OECD umbrella also averaged economic growth of 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. Official preliminary estimates of UK GDP published last month showed that the economy shrank by 0.4 per cent between July and September.
Source : The Times page 51 - 24.11.09.

Nationwide reports falls and predicts flatlining
The mini revival in house prices is set to come to a juddering halt, Britain's biggest building society has warned. Reporting a 62 per cent fall in pre-tax profits, Nationwide said it believed that house prices will "flatline" at best in the coming months because recent rises have been fuelled by a lack of supply of property rather than a true improvement in sentiment. In its latest survey, Nationwide found British house prices in October were up two per cent on the year - the first annual rise for 19 months.
Source : The Independent page 53 - 21.11.09. Also reported in Daily Mail page 106, The Daily Telegraph page 38, Daily Express page 78, Financial Times page 1.